I find myself needing to right about negawatts and megawatts, just to push the point that there is little utility in generating renewable megawatts if the efficiency negawatts have not been harvested. I'm reminded of the gluttony in Super Size Me - if one continues to gorge on unhealthy food, but occasionally consumes apple wedges or the lettuce based 'salad', can you really champion those habits as if he/she is making a difference in their overall health? I think not. So why do we feel that generating our ever increasing energy needs from renewables will save the environment.. or save us from rapid and intermittent climate change? It won't.
The value in renewable energy is awareness and proof. Everyone can get excited about it and energy becomes front of mind. Capital can get excited about it and that creates prof in projects. Entrepreneurs can get excited and that creates jobs and buoyancy for an industry. And policy makers can get excited about it (if our Representatives would get off their silly stumps). So although leading with the megawatt RE before cleaning up with the negawatt EE doesn't make sense... maybe it does! Its all a game of psychology isn't it.
However, we can't negate the point that the quickest energy path forward is by far and away through energy efficiency. We could achieve a 30% reduction in our energy needs in the next 20years. It will take twice that long with renewables. But with both, we can offset half of today's consumption of fossil fuel in just 20 years!
Jan 13, 2011
Nov 23, 2010
Solar Thermal in Colorado and Beyond
Solar thermal may be older, more efficient, and a more straight forward renewable energy than its newer brethren solar electric. But just like some families the first born remains in the shadows while the younger sibling steals the limelight. Why is this? Because PV (photovoltaic) produces electricity, widely consumed and normally generated by coal, where as ST (solar thermal) produces heat, often generated by natural gas. Addressing green house gases from coal fired power plants with bling on your roof is definitely sexy; addressing the more direct form of solar gain is simply practical but less exciting. Teh question is: is addressing practical applications of equal importance to our sustainable energy future? In the follow-on report I seek to shine light on the pros and cons of each technology, their applications, economics, and the state of Solar Thermal in Colorado and the Nation. Most interesting however are newer technologies that fall into 'thermal' and address peak electricity demand!
Pros:
Cons:
PV comes with a significant manufacturing impact (high energy loads, high carbon release, plus transportation); is very low in efficiency; production is not aligned with peak load demand; and there is no reasonable energy storage option.
ST is not plug and play; has few cost offset incentives; and offsets natural gas which is cheap.
Near Future:
PV is seeing a number of breakthroughs on the efficiency scale but related economics will need to mature. The storage option could be well aligned with the e-vehicle revolution and grid intelligence but that will take a number of years to really flesh itself out to a state of robustness, and comes with a significant cost in infrastructure. We are starting to see utility scale economics work as the manufacturing base over-supplies the market demand. Technology break throughs are needed and much R&D monies are being deployed to both efficiency and storage research.
ST is seeing a nice resurgence with a number of high quality products and new technological approaches that move far beyond heating water. We can now do space cooling in addition to space heating; commercial scale hot water; industrial scale process water and even process steam; and the coolest approach is utility scale CSP (concentrated solar power). Major Incentive programs are just now becoming available, in some states, and gas utilities are pursuing how natural gas can offset peak electricity demand!
Applications:
PV - micro scale consumer devices; residential electricity; commercial electricity; community electricity; and utility scale electric power.
ST - residential hot water and space heat; commercial hot water, space heat, and space cooling; commercial process water; industrial process water and steam; district energy scale space heating and cooling; district energy scale electric generation; utility scale electric generation.
Economics:
The rule of thumb on PV with both federal 30% incentive and utility based incentives are about a 10 year payback to ROI with another 10-15 years of free energy after that. Electricity has a fairly stable price, but it is trending upward and will continue to do so as State's adopt renewable energy portfolio standards.
The rule of thumb on ST looks about the same at 10year payback with only the 30% federal tax credit, but that is entirely dependent on the cost of the legacy fuel. When put against natural gas, although a volatile priced fuel, paybacks are way out at 20yr but when local incentives are applied we're back at the sub 10yr point. When up against propane the economics are awesome, on the scale of energy efficiency payback of 3-5yrs. Add local incentives to that and paybacks can be 1yr. When you can offset electricity we look like a 5 yr payback; and against heating oil near 7.
However, it shouldn't go without addressing that PV is virtually plug and play at scales below 250kW. A recent study shows economies of scale around 100kW that don't appear to exist at larger scales. ST takes piping and even though plumbing is no big deal there are more holes to cut and flows to address. Economies of scale definitely fall away from small in favor of large for this reason, and lean heavily toward commercial and industrial installations. Although, a residential system can simply be a packaged kit which doesn't seek to offset all hot water needs. A simple cookie cutter approach can cut down on soft costs.
Technologies:
For solar thermal we are seeing special glass glazing that pull in more sun yet radiate less back; we are seeing concentration technologies; advances in evacuated tube; hybrid technologes; and now combined systems that use solar drivers as 'when-available' engine with boiler based hot water as the base source.
What to Watch For 2011/2012
Natural gas volatility due to speculation and environmental regulation.
State based policy and incentives.
Commercial and industrial applications.
Space heating and cooling.
Solar thermal utility scale electric.
Thermal electricity from both direct solar and indirect waste heat.
Tune into the Solar Thermal Alliance of Colorado [COSEIA] for legislative activity.
http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/solar-thermal-alliance-of-colorado-111710/
Pros:
PV produces electricity; has lots of consumer awareness; and now has widely available incentives in the US with 'net metering' policy that allows grid tied solution (think storing when producing and not using).
ST produces heat and is highly efficient; energy is easily stored; the carbon payback from production is rapid; and several new technologies address electricity.Cons:
PV comes with a significant manufacturing impact (high energy loads, high carbon release, plus transportation); is very low in efficiency; production is not aligned with peak load demand; and there is no reasonable energy storage option.
ST is not plug and play; has few cost offset incentives; and offsets natural gas which is cheap.
Near Future:
PV is seeing a number of breakthroughs on the efficiency scale but related economics will need to mature. The storage option could be well aligned with the e-vehicle revolution and grid intelligence but that will take a number of years to really flesh itself out to a state of robustness, and comes with a significant cost in infrastructure. We are starting to see utility scale economics work as the manufacturing base over-supplies the market demand. Technology break throughs are needed and much R&D monies are being deployed to both efficiency and storage research.
ST is seeing a nice resurgence with a number of high quality products and new technological approaches that move far beyond heating water. We can now do space cooling in addition to space heating; commercial scale hot water; industrial scale process water and even process steam; and the coolest approach is utility scale CSP (concentrated solar power). Major Incentive programs are just now becoming available, in some states, and gas utilities are pursuing how natural gas can offset peak electricity demand!
Applications:
PV - micro scale consumer devices; residential electricity; commercial electricity; community electricity; and utility scale electric power.
ST - residential hot water and space heat; commercial hot water, space heat, and space cooling; commercial process water; industrial process water and steam; district energy scale space heating and cooling; district energy scale electric generation; utility scale electric generation.
Economics:
The rule of thumb on PV with both federal 30% incentive and utility based incentives are about a 10 year payback to ROI with another 10-15 years of free energy after that. Electricity has a fairly stable price, but it is trending upward and will continue to do so as State's adopt renewable energy portfolio standards.
The rule of thumb on ST looks about the same at 10year payback with only the 30% federal tax credit, but that is entirely dependent on the cost of the legacy fuel. When put against natural gas, although a volatile priced fuel, paybacks are way out at 20yr but when local incentives are applied we're back at the sub 10yr point. When up against propane the economics are awesome, on the scale of energy efficiency payback of 3-5yrs. Add local incentives to that and paybacks can be 1yr. When you can offset electricity we look like a 5 yr payback; and against heating oil near 7.
However, it shouldn't go without addressing that PV is virtually plug and play at scales below 250kW. A recent study shows economies of scale around 100kW that don't appear to exist at larger scales. ST takes piping and even though plumbing is no big deal there are more holes to cut and flows to address. Economies of scale definitely fall away from small in favor of large for this reason, and lean heavily toward commercial and industrial installations. Although, a residential system can simply be a packaged kit which doesn't seek to offset all hot water needs. A simple cookie cutter approach can cut down on soft costs.
Technologies:
For solar thermal we are seeing special glass glazing that pull in more sun yet radiate less back; we are seeing concentration technologies; advances in evacuated tube; hybrid technologes; and now combined systems that use solar drivers as 'when-available' engine with boiler based hot water as the base source.
What to Watch For 2011/2012
Natural gas volatility due to speculation and environmental regulation.
State based policy and incentives.
Commercial and industrial applications.
Space heating and cooling.
Solar thermal utility scale electric.
Thermal electricity from both direct solar and indirect waste heat.
Tune into the Solar Thermal Alliance of Colorado [COSEIA] for legislative activity.
http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/solar-thermal-alliance-of-colorado-111710/
Oct 19, 2010
Chasing Chickens - The Entrepreneur's Dilemma
The beautiful thing about an entrepreneur is the undying optimism. Let me tell you: Its required to maintain momentum in crossing that 'valley of death'. Yet that optimism can present an opaque lens which makes it difficult to see the difference between value and excitement. Value is an activity and resource that actually moves the business forward; excitement is activity that simply plays on emotion but actually serves to distract from the path forward. Obviously the entire challenge of entrepreneurial success is knowing what to pursue at the right time in light of so many options and a forever changing landscape. That's why when I saw Dawn Todd's post on Chasing Chickens I was beside myself with laughter. Or as one colleague put it recently: chasing shiny objects.
When chasing chickens you are running in circles trying to cover all things before they get away. You know the goal: all chickens need to go back in the coup. YET the art in success is getting them one at a time back into the shed. As an entrepreneur you can't take your eye off the chicken you are currently chasing - make sure it is put away before chasing the big fluffy one that just ran by in the other direction! Of course you must be assured that you are chasing the right chicken so choose wisely, the others will return because they don't stray very far.
When chasing chickens you are running in circles trying to cover all things before they get away. You know the goal: all chickens need to go back in the coup. YET the art in success is getting them one at a time back into the shed. As an entrepreneur you can't take your eye off the chicken you are currently chasing - make sure it is put away before chasing the big fluffy one that just ran by in the other direction! Of course you must be assured that you are chasing the right chicken so choose wisely, the others will return because they don't stray very far.
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